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Portfolio Value-at-Risk Estimation in Energy Futures Markets with Time-Varying Copula-GARCH Model
Company: Annals of Operations Research
Company Url: Click here to open
Year Of Publication: 2010
Month Of Publication: June
Resource Link: Click here to open
Download Count: 0
View Count: 1487
Comment Num: 0
Language: English
Source: article
Who Can Read: Free
Date: 6-9-2011
Publisher: Administrator
Summary
This paper combines copula functions with GARCH-type models to construct the conditional joint distribution, which is used to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising crude oil futures and natural gas futures in energy market. Both constant and time-varying copulas are applied to fit the dependence structure of the two assets returns. The findings show that the constant Student t copula is a good compromise for effectively fitting the dependence structure between crude oil futures and natural gas futures. Moreover, the skewed Student t distribution has a better fit than Normal and Student t distribution to the marginal distribution of each asset. Asymmetries and excess kurtosis are found in marginal distributions as well as in dependence. We estimate VaR of the underlying portfolio to be 95% and 99%, by using the Monte Carlo simulation. Then using backtesting, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performances of VaR estimated by different models.
Author(s)
Lai, Kin Keung Sign in to follow this author
Lu, Xun Fa Sign in to follow this author
Liang, Liang Sign in to follow this author
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